Abstract
AbstractExtensive research has improved our understanding and forecast of the occurrence, evolution and global impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, ENSO changes as the global climate warms up and it exhibits different characteristics and climate impacts in the twenty-first century from the twentieth century. Climate models project that ENSO will also change in the warming future and have not reached an agreement about the flavor, as to the intensity and the frequency, of future ENSO conditions. This article presents the conventional view of ENSO properties, dynamics and teleconnections, and reviews the emerging understanding of the diversity and associated climate impacts of ENSO. It also reviews the results from investigations into the possible changes in ENSO under the future global-warming scenarios.
Highlights
El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a powerful climate phenomenon that exerts profound impacts on the global climate and accounts for the major skill source of seasonal-to-inter-annual climate prediction
The weakened subtropical high decreases northeast trade winds, resulting in warming in the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) region. Another popular mechanism to explain the TNA response to ENSO invokes a wave train response in the mid-latitudes. This mechanism suggests that the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern excited by El Nino (La Nina) events has an anomaly center over the southeastern US, which extends into the Atlantic and weakens the subtropical high, resulting in TNA warming
This article reviews ENSO and its climate impacts including the mechanisms for ENSO occurrence, the characteristics of ENSO, the ENSO-related teleconnections patterns, the impacts of ENSO on global climate and the long-term changes in ENSO and related climate features observed and projected for future climate
Summary
El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a powerful climate phenomenon that exerts profound impacts on the global climate and accounts for the major skill source of seasonal-to-inter-annual climate prediction. This mechanism suggests that the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern excited by El Nino (La Nina) events has an anomaly center over the southeastern US, which extends into the Atlantic and weakens (strengthens) the subtropical high, resulting in TNA warming (cooling).
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