El Niño–Southern Oscillation influences on the interannual variability of leaf appearance dates in central Siberia

Abstract

This paper analyses the role of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of the leaf appearance dates of boreal forests in the Northern Hemisphere (1982–2004). We find significant negative correlations between the ENSO, quantified by means of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and the leaf appearance dates in central Siberia with up to 9 months lag. The correlations between leaf appearance dates and summer Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) show a pattern that resembles the ENSO phenomena with positive and significant correlations in the East Pacific and negative in the West. These findings are explained by the role of SOI on Sea Level Pressures, 500 hPa Geopotential and the wind flow direction and intensity during the months of leaf appearance (April and May) and on average temperatures, which determine noticeably the date of leaf appearance.