El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Its Impacts on Local Climate and Sugarcane Yield in Brazil

Abstract

Faced with the great interference of El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) into the local climate of a given site in conjunction with agricultural systems, the current study aimed at assessing the effects of ENSO on thermal and water regimes at different Brazilian sites, as well as its impacts on sugarcane crop yield. The DSSAT CSM-CANEGRO model, parameterized under the Brazilian environmental conditions, was used to simulate sugarcane yield at four sites of different Brazilian states from 1979 to 2010 for three types of soils and two types of simulations, Seasonal and Sequence. The outcomes obtained herein pointed out that ENSO events distinctly impinged upon meteorological variables regime; however, a clear trend as to the air temperature, global solar radiation and rainfall regimes could not be noticed owing to a large variability found in the current study. With regard to sugarcane yield, some trends were observed. In Jatai, GO, no changes greater than ± 1 t ha−1 occurred. In Joao Pessoa, PB, there was a trend of lower yields during El Nino and La Nina years and higher yields during neutral years. Moreover, a contrasting scenario was envisioned in Piracicaba, SP, and Londrina, PR, where yields tended to be higher than historical average under both El Nino and La Nina events, while during neutral years, yield tended to be smaller than average.