Abstract
El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most recurrent change in climate impacting agriculture productivity and food security. This study investigates ENSO impacts on four cereal crops (maize, millet, sorghum and wheat) using crop production and climate datasets spanning the years 1960-2015. The results of this study reveal that during El Nino (La Nina) maize, sorghum and wheat production decreases (increases) while that of millet increases (decreases). Even though, the correlation is statistically significant for maize only, the outcome is a call to review the macro-food policy taking into account ENSO-related phase effects to redress food insecurity. The study recommends incentives for agricultural productivity including irrigation intensification and small grain value chain development, trade and food security arrangements, income generation opportunities and strategic partnerships for improved food and nutrition security.
Highlights
The food price spikes of the years just prior to 2010 and the economic, political, and social dislocations they generated led to renewed interest on the macroeconomic policy and agriculture link for developing countries (Note 1) (Diaz-Bonilla, 2015; Alamgir and Arora, 2009)
El Niño years are illustrated as above, while La Niña years are those below the x-axis
Strong El Niño events were recorded in the years 1957-58; 1965-66 and 1972-73 while very strong ones were recorded in 1982-83; 1997-98 and 2015-16
Summary
The food price spikes of the years just prior to 2010 and the economic, political, and social dislocations they generated led to renewed interest on the macroeconomic policy and agriculture link for developing countries (Note 1) (Diaz-Bonilla, 2015; Alamgir and Arora, 2009). Agriculture is a key economic sector with large percentages of overall domestic production, exports and employment It is the sector with important growth and employment multipliers for the rest of the economy and larger positive effects in reducing poverty than growth in other sectors. A coherently designed macro food policy couples a strategy for food security with a strategy for growth that reaches the poor Such a macro food policy has three components that, in turn, reinforce the country’s food security: rapid growth in the macro economy, poverty reduction through rural economic growth, and stability of the food system. Agriculture and a dynamic rural economy are the keys to integrating the three components Establishing this link to food security from the macro side allows a country to capture growth opportunities, some quite subtle, that are missed otherwise. Raising agricultural productivity is a key strategy for lifting rural households’ income, reducing poverty, ending hunger and achieving food security
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