Eight Months of 2022 for the Consolidated Budgets of the Subjects of the Russian Federation and Prospects for the Budget Triennial

Abstract

The change in the geopolitical situation and the increase in economic sanctions against the Russian economy in the first eight months of 2022 did not lead to a serious deterioration in the budget results for regional budgets. Receipts of the total amount of revenues of the consolidated budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation and key tax revenues grew faster than the rate of inflation. There is a gradual deterioration in the situation with the receipt of corporate income tax in regional budgets starting from May of this year. Personal income tax receipts are growing, but mainly due to payments from high-income categories of the population. In the conditions of growing price volatility on world markets, the factor of industry specialization of the region is gaining an increasing influence on the differentiation of regional budget revenues. Changes in tax legislation coming into force from 2023 may result in the redistribution of some of the revenues of regional budgets in favor of the federal budget. There is a tendency to reduce tax revenues in relatively prosperous regions. The planned reduction of federal transfers in real terms and relative to GDP will mainly affect the problem regions — their main recipients. This will inevitably lead to an aggravation of problems with the fulfillment of growing social obligations in all categories of regions.