Egypt’s Protected Area network under future climate change

Abstract

Concerns about the impacts of climate change loom large among biodiversity scientists. A pressing issue is the role of Protected Area networks under future climate change, because of the shifting of species distributions polewards due to climate warming. In this study we use two techniques in conservation science, first, to estimate the likely impacts on the distributions of mammals and butterflies in Egypt (MaxEnt), and second, to measure the effectiveness of Egypt’s Protected Area network (Zonation). We predict that future climate will have significant effects on species richness and the relative value for conservation of sites in Egypt: some areas will increase in species richness, whilst others will decrease significantly. Currently, the sites of highest relative conservation value are found in the Nile Delta, south-eastern and Sinai regions of Egypt and along the Mediterranean and Red Sea coastlines, with Protected Areas having a higher conservation value than unprotected areas. Under future climate scenarios the relative conservation value of Protected Areas are predicted initially to decline and then gradually increase by the 2080s. It is predicted that many areas, especially the Nile Delta and the southeast, will require extra protection in the future; areas that are currently not protected, but have high species richness and conservation value, may need to be protected to prevent loss of biodiversity.