Egypt as a Failing State: Implications for US National Security

Abstract

Abstract : Short-term solutions to more profound, long-term problems are not sufficient to safeguard United States interests in the Middle East. This paper challenges the current United States policy towards Egypt and its underlying assumption that regime stability supercedes a US interest in true political development. The key question in this paper queries why the status quo policy towards Egypt is no longer fulfilling US objectives when it has been a successful pillar for US Middle East policy in the past. One can easily understand the seductive nature of adhering to the status quo policy by recalling Anwar Sadat's initiatives moving Egypt squarely from the Soviet camp to the American one, the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty, and Egypt's support during the Gulf War in 1991. The United States must take bold new steps towards its relationship with Egypt and leverage Egypt's historical regional leadership to better support US interests for the future. What has changed in the global and regional security environment that demands the re-evaluation of our policy propos Egypt? The global and regional security environments have undergone monumental shifts; new fault lines exist. Although President Husni Mubarak has led a state and society that has weathered economic dislocations, political deliberalization, a growing Islamist movement and an apathetic political culture, these forces will quickly overwhelm Mubarak's traditionally autocratic and oppressive short-term fixes. The United States must not be lulled into a false sense of security based on Mubarak's grip on power for over twenty years. The possibility of unrest is real; with the correct confluence of domestic, regional, and international events, Egypt can quickly be added to the list of failed states.