Efficient slope reliability analysis at low-probability levels in spatially variable soils

Abstract

Direct Monte Carlo simulation for the reliability analysis of slope stability with spatially variable soil properties suffers from a serious lack of efficiency when the probability of failure, pf, is low (e.g., pf<10-6). Based on the multiple response surfaces and Subset simulation, this paper proposes an efficient approach for the estimating of small probabilities of slope failure in spatially variable soils. An improved Cholesky decomposition technique is presented for the simulation of the globally non-stationary random fields of spatially variable soil properties in the multiple soil layers. Two slope examples are investigated to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The efficiency of the proposed approach for parametric sensitivity analysis is also highlighted.