Efficient Prediction of Low-Visibility Events at Airports Using Machine-Learning Regression

Abstract

We address the prediction of low-visibility events at airports using machine-learning regression. The proposed model successfully forecasts low-visibility events in terms of the runway visual range at the airport, with the use of support-vector regression, neural networks (multi-layer perceptrons and extreme-learning machines) and Gaussian-process algorithms. We assess the performance of these algorithms based on real data collected at the Valladolid airport, Spain. We also propose a study of the atmospheric variables measured at a nearby tower related to low-visibility atmospheric conditions, since they are considered as the inputs of the different regressors. A pre-processing procedure of these input variables with wavelet transforms is also described. The results show that the proposed machine-learning algorithms are able to predict low-visibility events well. The Gaussian process is the best algorithm among those analyzed, obtaining over 98% of the correct classification rate in low-visibility events when the runway visual range is $${>}$$ 1000 m, and about 80% under this threshold. The performance of all the machine-learning algorithms tested is clearly affected in extreme low-visibility conditions ( $${<}$$ 500 m). However, we show improved results of all the methods when data from a neighbouring meteorological tower are included, and also with a pre-processing scheme using a wavelet transform. Also presented are results of the algorithm performance in daytime and nighttime conditions, and for different prediction time horizons.