Efficient method for identification of cyclic trends in incidence

Abstract

Various methods for estimating the parameters of the simple harmonic curve and corresponding statistics for testing the significance of the sinusoidal trend are investigated. The locally reasonable method is almost fully efficient when the size of the trend is very small; however, the maximum likelihood method is preferred generally, especially when the trend is not very small. The log likelihood ratio test is more powerful than the R test which is based on locally reasonable estimates. The efficient method and the log likelihood ratio or equivalent tests are the best statistical techniques for identifying the cyclical trend. Thus they are the methods of choice when adequate computing facilities are available.