Efficient Derivation of the Probability Distribution of the Extreme Values of Offshore Structural Response: Comparison of Three Different Methods

Abstract

Offshore structures are exposed to random wave loading in the ocean environment and hence the probability distribution of the extreme values of their response to wave loading is required for their safe and economical design. To this end, the conventional (Monte Carlo) time simulation technique (CTS) is frequently used for predicting the probability distribution of the extreme values of response. However, this technique suffers from excessive sampling variability and hence a large number of simulated extreme responses (hundreds of simulated response records) are required to reduce the sampling variability to acceptable levels. In this paper, three different versions of a more efficient time simulation technique (ETS) are compared by exposing a test structure to sea states of different intensity. The three different versions of the ETS technique take advantage of the good correlation between extreme responses and their corresponding surface elevation extreme values, or quasi-static and dynamic linear extreme responses.