Abstract
This report describes the Integrated Assessment Model TIAM-MACRO, which is a Ramsey-type macroeconomic growth model linked with a technology-rich engineering model of the energy-system and with a stylized sub-model of climate change. TIAM-MACRO contributes to coherent and consistent policy analyses at both the world and regional level and correlates demand for energy services to macro-economic developments across regions and time until the end of the 21st century. With the help of this model, two contrasting scenarios are defined related to the reference development (BASE) case and the 2 °C (2DS) case that follow long-term policies on climatic change mitigation in the spirit of the Paris agreement. Finally, we define ex-post market and non-market damages together with the damages related to Local Atmospheric Pollutants (LAP). The stringency of the 2DS case requires the complete restructuring of the energy and transport systems to be relying on carbon-free technologies and fuels together with technologies of negative emissions, at high costs. The study concludes that carbon policies not only consist of an insurance against the risk of climate change but also improve the ambient air quality, as they have secondary benefits that compensate for part of the cost of carbon control. However, the stringency of the 2DS case is so demanding that the cost of climate policies is above benefits.
Highlights
The energy oil crisis of the last century has inspired the development of different modelling schools and their energy-related specific software tools for policy analysis (such as Agent-Based models, Applied General Equilibrium models, System Dynamics models, Integrated AssessmentModels based on Mathematical Programming (MP), Game theoretical models, and Multi CriteriaDecision Making Analysis approaches)
The scope of the article was to demonstrate the analytical capabilities of TIAM-MACRO with some basic examples discussing issues related to climate change
The search for an efficient 2 ◦ C scenario is elaborated by imposing appropriate cumulative global CO2 quotas from 2020 to 2100
Summary
The energy oil crisis of the last century has inspired the development of different modelling schools and their energy-related specific software tools for policy analysis The different aspects of resource assessment processes modelled by the IEA-ETSAP consortium address actual policy questions that need a holistic approach and integration in the same framework This general equilibrium growth modelling platform of TIAM-MACRO [5] is consistent with other global energy modelling tools based on mathematical programming [6,7,8,9] and extends the geographical coverage of the 4E methodology at the national, regional, and global level with 15 world regions. The model evaluations support decision-making analysis and the formulation of suitable operative strategies It integrates the most important LAP externalities and damage functions, together with the damages of climate change, and allows for the performance of cost/benefit (CBA) and second best analysis (SBA) identifying appropriate technological options and prioritizing measures for cost-efficient energy systems.
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