Abstract
Rising of the sea level and/or heavy rainfall intensification significantly enhance the risk of flooding in low-lying coastal reclamation areas. Therefore, there is a necessity to assess whether channel hydraulic networks and pumping systems are still efficient and reliable in managing risks of flooding in such areas in the future. This study addresses these issues for the pumping system of the Mazzocchio area, which is the most depressed area within the Pontina plain, a large reclamation region in the south of Lazio (Italy). For this area, in order to assess climate change impact, a novel methodological approach is proposed, based on the development of a simulation–optimization model, which combines a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm and a hydraulic model. For assigned extreme rainfall events and sea levels, the model calculates sets of Pareto optimal solutions which are obtained by defining two optimality criteria: (a) to minimize the flooding surface in the considered area; (b) to minimize the pumping power necessary to mitigate the flooding. The application shows that the carrying capacity of the hydraulic network downstream of the pumping system is insufficient to cope with future sea level rise and intensification of rainfall.
Highlights
Recent studies have shown that in Central Italy, the occurrence of torrential rainfall, exceeding100 mm/d, has increased in the last decades [1]
To perform a more general and less restrictive analysis, in order to compare the possible different configurations of a hydraulic system under different hydrological inputs, this paper proposes to use sets of Pareto optimal solutions as calculated by a multiobjective optimization approach, in which the switching on/off levels of the pump system are assumed as decision variables
The multiobjective optimization genetic optimization genetic algorithm, using the outputs from the hydraulic model, calculates the objective algorithm, using the outputs from the hydraulic model, calculates the objective functions, verifies the functions, verifies the constraints violations, and by an iterative procedure based on tournament constraints violations, and by an iterative procedure based on tournament selection of nondominant selection of nondominant solutions and generation of new populations by crossover and mutation, solutions and generation of new populations by crossover and mutation, identifies the set of Pareto identifies the set of Pareto optimal solutions
Summary
Recent studies have shown that in Central Italy, the occurrence of torrential rainfall, exceeding100 mm/d, has increased in the last decades [1]. Lambeck et al [7] have argued that in the central Tyrrhenian Sea, sea level rise will mainly impact the coasts near Rome Some of these coasts include the southern Latium, with its mainly coastal lakes, the Voltuno littoral, and the Sele River area, with sea level rise ranging from 315 to 1400 mm, depending on the climate scenario considered. Rising sea levels and intensification of extreme precipitation significantly increases the flood risk in such low-lying coastal areas. This has some substantial consequences, as the coastal areas around Rome are densely populated, with extensive and highly developed agriculture along with a large presence of industrial activity
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