Efficacy of MELD score in predicting survival after liver retransplantation

Abstract

Objective We retrospectively investigated the efficacy of the MELD score to predict the outcome of liver retransplantation and serve as selection criteria. Materials and methods From 1987 to 2003, the 765 liver transplantations included 87 patients (11.4%) who received a second graft. In addition to graft and patient survivals, ROC curves were used to establish the best MELD score to select cases with poor outcomes. Results Indications for retransplantation were: 38 (43.7%) surgical complications; 12 (13.8%) chronic rejections; 15 (17.2%) disease recurrences; and 22 (15.3%) primary graft nonfunction. Overall patient survivals at 1, 3, and 5 years were 62.4%, 50.7%, and 49.1%, respectively. A MELD score of 25, calculated by ROC curves, significantly predicted graft and patient survival (44.2% vs 22.5%, P < .05 and 58.6% vs 27.8%, P < .005). During the first 30 postoperative days, patients with a MELD higher than 25 lost the second graft in 48% of cases compared to 16% in the other group ( P < .005). Patients retransplanted for primary graft nonfunction showed significant lower 5-year survival rates than those for other indications (28.6% vs 54.5%, P < .05) and higher mean MELD score (30.7 vs 21.9, P < .05). Conclusion A MELD score of 25 is a valid cut-off to predict the outcome of retransplantations, it may be useful to select patients among those who require a second graft. Cases with primary graft nonfunction displayed lower survival, because of their compromised clinical status as evidenced by their high MELD scores.