Efficacy of Forced Choice Testing in Detecting a Secret Cell Hiding Within a Group

Abstract

The purpose of this project was to test whether a previously validated method of detecting deception known as forced choice testing would be effective at finding a “cell” of deceptive individuals hiding in a larger group. 64 men and women enrolled in a State Trooper Academy were the participants of this study; 57 participants were randomized to the truthful group and 7 were randomized to the deceptive group. Each participant was given an FCT by a member of the cadre who was blind to the status of the participants. The distribution of responses deviated significantly below the binomial prediction for 14 individuals; a cross-link analysis indicated 7 of these 14 did not select each other. These were the members of the deceptive group. Consistent with the hypothesis underpinning traditional FCT methods, deceptive individuals motivated to hide what they knew (i.e., the identity of the “cell” of deceptive individuals) avoided picking any of the other deceptive participants who appeared on the FCT. This avoidance behavior resulted in fewer number of “selections” than predicted by the binomial calculations. These data suggest it may be fruitful to explore how well the principles of FCT can be used in law enforcement or national security to detect potentially dangerous “cells” of individuals hiding within larger groups.