Abstract
This study evaluated the effects on forest resources and forest product markets of three contrasting mass timber demand scenarios (Conservative, Optimistic, and Extreme), up to 2060, in twelve selected countries in Asia, Europe, North America, and South America. Analyses were carried out by utilizing the FOrest Resource Outlook Model, a partial market equilibrium model of the global forest sector. The findings suggest increases in global softwood lumber production of 8, 23, and 53 million m3 per year by 2060, under the Conservative, Optimistic, and Extreme scenarios, respectively, leading to world price increases of 2%, 7%, and 23%, respectively. This projected price increase is relative to the projected price in the reference scenario, altering prices, production, consumption, trade of forest products, timber harvest, forest growth, and forest stock in individual countries. An increase in softwood lumber prices due to increased mass timber demand would lead to the reduced consumption of softwood lumber for traditional end-use (e.g., light-frame construction), suggesting a likely strong market competition for softwood lumber between the mass timber and traditional construction industries. In contrast, the projected effect on global forest stock was relatively small based on the relatively fast projected biomass growth in stands assumed to be regenerated after harvest.
Highlights
The results of the demand projections indicate that the total global demands for mass timber are projected to increase to 8, 25, and 58 million m3 by 2060 in the Conservative, Optimistic, and Extreme mass timber demand scenarios, respectively
Based on forest resources and wood products market modeling grounded on sound economic theories and methods, our study contributes to an enhanced understanding of the potential effects of increased mass timber consumption on forest resources and forest product markets in individual countries, regions and the world, which were not available in the past literature
The findings of this study help answer several questions that have been raised about the potential effects on aggregate forest resources and the traditional forest industry of future large increases in mass timber consumption in multiple countries
Summary
Emissions, which accounted for about 38% of global energy-related emissions in 2019 [1]. The majority (74%) of these emissions were the result of energy consumption during building operations (e.g., use of fossil fuel for heating and cooking, and use of carbonintensive electricity), and the rest of the emissions (26%) were estimated to come from the building construction indusf52try that manufactures building construction materials, such as steel, cement, and glass [1]. Sustainability 2021, 13, 13943 by 2050 [2]. The global building sector is expected to continue to grow at a substantial rate in the future to accommodate the increasing needs for residential and nonresidential buildings by the growing population. This would be equivalent to adding about 110 km
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