Effects of warming and drought stress on winter wheat in Jiangsu Province, China

Abstract

AbstractWe used the World Food Studies (WOFOST) model to analyze meteorological, soil, and winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) growth period data in Xuzhou, Huaian, and Changzhou, Jiangsu Province from 2008 to 2017. The data collected were used to study the effects of warming and drought on winter wheat yield and dry matter accumulation. The simulation results showed that single warming stress (1, 2, and 3 ℃), drought stress (mild, moderate, and severe), and combined drought and warming stress can reduce the yield of winter wheat. The highest yield reduction rate was 25.5% in Changzhou under the condition of single warming, and the yield reduction rate increased by 5% when the soil relative humidity decreased by 10% under the condition of single drought. The grain dry matter formation of winter wheat was also inhibited by warming and drought, and the lowest dry matter ratio was only 42.4% in Changzhou under drought. The influence of combined stress was greater than that of single stress under various contrasts. However, in the middle of Jiangsu Province, the yield of winter wheat was most affected by drought, and the distribution of dry matter accumulation decreased from south to north. The yield reduction of winter wheat under other stresses increased from south to north, and the dry matter distribution of grain was lower in the south than in the north and lower in the central part of Jiangsu Province.