Effects of Version 2 of the International Sunspot Number on Naïve Predictions of Solar Cycle 25

Abstract

AbstractThe recalibration of the International Sunspot Number brings new challenges to predictions of Solar Cycle 25. One is that the list of extrema for the original series is no longer usable because the values of all maxima and minima are different for the new version of the sunspot number. Timings of extrema are less sensitive to the recalibration but are a natural result of the calculation. Predictions of Solar Cycle 25 published before 2016 must be converted to the new version of the sunspot number. Any prediction method that looks across the entire time span will have to be reconsidered because values in the nineteenth century were corrected by a larger factor than those in the twentieth century. We report a list of solar maxima and minima values and timings based on the recalibrated sunspot number. Naïve forecasts that depend only on the current values of the time series are common in economic studies. Several naïve predictions of Solar Cycle 25, the climatological average (180 ± 60), two versions of the inertial forecast, and two versions of the even‐odd forecast, are derived from that table. The climatological average forecast is the baseline for more accurate predictions and the initial forecast in assimilative models of the Sun. It also provides the error estimate for Monte Carlo techniques that anticipate the long‐term effects on the terrestrial environment. The other four predictions are shown to be statistically insignificant.