Abstract
This study assesses the spatio‐temporal impact of vaccination efforts on Covid‐19 incidence growth in Turkey. Incorporating geographical features of SARS‐CoV‐2 transmission, we adopt a spatial Susceptible–Infected–Recovered (SIR) model that serves as a guide of our empirical specification. Using provincial weekly panel data, we estimate a dynamic spatial autoregressive (SAR) model to elucidate the short‐ and the long‐run impact of vaccination on Covid‐19 incidence growth after controlling for temporal and spatio‐temporal diffusion, testing capacity, social distancing behavior and unobserved space‐varying confounders. Results show that vaccination growth reduces Covid‐19 incidence growth rate directly and indirectly by creating a positive externality over space. The significant association between vaccination and Covid‐19 incidence is robust to a host of spatial weight matrix specifications. Conspicuous spatial and temporal diffusion effects of Covid‐19 incidence growth were found across all specifications: the former being a severer threat to the containment of the pandemic than the latter.
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