Effects of upstream and downstream boundary conditions on lacustrine shallow-water delta morphologies: A numerical modeling approach

Abstract

Lacustrine shallow-water deltas exhibit highly variable morphologies, owing to their high sensitivity to changes in the upstream and downstream boundary conditions, where a small change significantly alters their morphology. In this study, we present the results from a numerical model (DELFT3D) used to explore the mechanism of distributary network amalgamation and delta evolution under various boundary conditions. We established a reference case to model the delta building-out process considering the basin water depth difference (shallow and deep). Geological and hydrodynamic models were established by varying the water level under a steady river discharge and sediment supply. Despite similar initial conditions, each modeled delta exhibits a unique morphological evolution, progressing through distinct stages: (i) formation of unstable, narrow channels with quasi-radial shapes; (ii) channel development, shaping the delta based on controlling factors; (iii) reduction of deltaic activity and increased channel avulsion due to delta submergence, and; (iv) new channels emerging, paving the way for reshaping and migration towards new paths, resulting in fewer bifurcations and straighter channels. Quantitative relationships characterizing delta morphology and distributary channels were established, and the following results were noted: (i) a positive correlation between active and abandoned channels, distributary channel network opening angle, and delta area with discharge and sediment grain size, and negative correlation with basin depth and falling water level; (ii) a positive correlation of lobe elongation with basin depth and discharge, and a negative correlation with sediment grain size; and (iii) roughness and length-to-width ratio emerging as key predictors of delta shape. By applying the model predictions to real-world scenarios, including modern deltas (Sile and Chiemsee) and ancient systems (Bohai Bay Basin), this study can provide valuable insights into the dynamics of lacustrine deltaic systems and their responses to changing boundary conditions. This highlights the importance of understanding deltaic systems for both theoretical research and practical applications.