Effects of tube service disruptions on the usage of the London Cycle Hire

Abstract

Urban rail transit and cycle hire are two main public travel modes used in London. However, their relationship, in terms of substitutability and complementarity has not yet been fully studied. This paper investigates the effects of tube service disruptions on the usage of the London Cycle Hire (LCH) using the data for more than one million LCH trips during the period from April 20th to May 22nd, 2019. The tube service status data were collected from Transport for London (TfL) over the same period. Covariates including socio-economic information, built environment characteristics, and weather conditions are also controlled for in the analysis. A buffer-area based panel data regression model is used to estimate the effects of tube service disruptions on the LCH usage. Our results indicate that the closure of tube stations can reduce the number of nearby LCH trips during the peak times, and increase the number of LCH trips during the inter peak times. Severe delays and suspensions can both lead to an increase in LCH departure trips in the morning peak, but the effects are not statistically significant during the evening peak or inter peak times. Moreover, compared to the effects of tube station closures, the effects of severe delays and suspensions are much smaller. This study provides a better understanding of the interdependencies between the urban rail transit and public bicycle share systems.