Effects of trip-level characteristics on autonomous vehicle ownership: A U.S. analysis

Abstract

We examined how trip-level characteristics may influence autonomous vehicle ownership decisions. Using 639 stated preference survey responses in the US, we developed an integrated choice and latent variable model linking trip- and consumer-level characteristics to AV ownership choices. Results suggested parking cost, travel cost and travel time are important predictors for vehicle ownership at the trip-level; and monthly payment, car ownership importance and autonomous vehicle safety perceptions are significant predictors at the consumer-level. By examining elasticities of vehicle ownership market shares, we found while consumer-level characteristics have the most prominent effect on vehicle ownership decisions, trip-level characteristics have a small but measurable effect. Among trip-level characteristics, parking cost has the largest impact on vehicle ownership decisions, followed by travel cost of ridehailing (both conventional and autonomous), and transit travel time. Finally, we simulated future vehicle ownership decisions under three policy scenarios by leveraging trip- and consumer-level characteristics.