Abstract

We estimate the biases caused by the coherent deflection of cosmic rays due to the Galactic magnetic field (GMF) in maximum likelihood analyses for searches of ultrahigh-energy cosmic-ray sources in the literature. We simulate mock event data sets with a set of assumptions for the starburst galaxy source model, coherent deflection by a GMF model, and mixed-mass composition. We then conduct a maximum likelihood analysis without accounting for the GMF in the same manner as previous studies. We find that the anisotropic fraction f ani is estimated to be systematically lower than the true value. We estimate the true parameters that are compatible with the best-fit parameters that were reported, and find that except for a narrow region with a large anisotropic fraction and a small separation angular scale, a wide parameter space is still compatible with the experimental results. We also develop a maximum likelihood method that takes the GMF model into account and confirm in Monte Carlo simulations that we can estimate the true parameters within a 1σ contour under the ideal condition that we know the event-by-event mass and the GMF.

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