Effects of the Federal Aviation Administration's Compliance Program on aircraft incidents and accidents

Abstract

• Restorative justice-based policies in aviation may be unsafe. • The FAA’s Compliance Program may reduce aviation safety. • Population-level data was evaluated using GLARMA modeling. • An increase in aircraft incidents and accidents resulted from the FAA’s Compliance Program. • A decrease in punishment may affect human behavioral responses. A novel enforcement policy based on restorative justice principles was implemented by the United States Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in 2015. In this study, interrupted time series regression analyses using generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GLARMA) models were used to analyze FAA investigated incident and accident counts, runway incursion caused by pilot deviation, and National Transport Safety Board (NTSB) accident count data from June 2010 to September 2020. An association was observed between the change in FAA’s enforcement policy and the increase in aircraft incidents, accidents, and runway incursions post-intervention (2015–2020). These adverse safety outcomes appear to be directly related to this policy change. Results highlight the risk of moving away from punishment as a means of reinforcing safe behavior and the need for careful theory-based implementation of alternative approaches.