Abstract
The analyze of the El Niño, La Niña, and Neutral years phenomena and their influence on the temporal distribution of precipitation and air temperature is of great importance in agricultural systems, with the view to adapt crop management in order to reduce the risks of losses, optimizing rainwater and contributing to food security. The aim of this paper was to characterize variations in annual, monthly, and dekads rainfall in normal years and in those in the two extreme ENSO events in the municipalities of Tangará da Serra, Rondonópolis, and Sinop, in Mato Grosso state. Historic data were used, from INMET and ANA, covering 1970 to 2016. Probable annual precipitation was determined via the gamma distribution. In the three municipalities studied, the period considered as rainy falls between October and April and the dry season falls between May and September. The average annual rainfall for the municipalities is 1800, 1900, and 1500 mm, for Tangará da Serra, Sinop, and Rondonópolis, respectively. The effects of the ENSO, besides causing a 100 mm reduction in average annual precipitation, also cause little summers (“veranicos”) in the months of November and February. The municipalities of Tangará da Serra, Rondonópolis, and Sinop presented high levels of rainfall in Neutral years. The effects of the ENSO reduce rainfall levels but increase the number of rainy days. The Neutral years are more suitable to agriculture at regions of Mato Grosso State, followed by El Niño years, with concentrated rainy period and La Niña, with higher occurrence of veranicos, that maybe mitigated with use of irrigations systems.
Highlights
Mato Grosso state, one of the richest in Brazil in terms of diversity, with three of the most important biomes in the country (Cerrado, Pantanal, Amazon), has presented accelerated economic growth in the last decades, together with demographic growth (Marinho et al, 2016)
The climate of the regions is classified as AwA, BwA, and CwA according to Koppen classification, for Tangará da Serra, Sinop, and Rondonópolis, respectively; that is, it is a hot and humid climate, with a rainy season in the summer and drought in the winter, characterizing it as seasonal (Souza et al, 2013)
The average annual precipitation observed in the period from 1970 to 2016 in the municipalities of Tangará da Serra, Sinop, and Rondonópolis had a variation in rainfall levels when under the effect of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Summary
Mato Grosso state, one of the richest in Brazil in terms of diversity, with three of the most important biomes in the country (Cerrado, Pantanal, Amazon), has presented accelerated economic growth in the last decades, together with demographic growth (Marinho et al, 2016). The area is one of the main agricultural regions in Brazil. The regions of Sinop, Rondonópolis, and Tangará da Serra are municipalities of great agricultural importance (Câmara, 2012). According to data from “National Supply Company” CONAB (2016), soy productivity in Mato Grosso has declined since 2007, when it was 3100 kg ha-1 to 2956 kg ha-1 in the harvest of 2015/2016 growing season. CONAB states that there was a delay in planting in various states and the occurrence of “veranicos”, periods of time with x feature, generated a reduction of the last harvest. Due to the increase in area, production in the 2015/16 harvest, estimated at 96.9 million tons, is greater in relation to the 2014/15 harvest, but with lower productivity per unit area
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