Effects of the El Niño–southern oscillation on temperature, precipitation, snow water equivalent and resulting streamflow in the Upper Rio Grande river basin

Abstract

AbstractSnowmelt runoff dominates streamflow in the Upper Rio Grande (URG) basin of New Mexico and Colorado. Annual variations in streamflow timing and volume at most stations in the region are strongly influenced by the El Niño–southern oscillation (ENSO) through its modulation of the seasonal cycles of temperature and precipitation, and hence on snow accumulation and melting. After removing long‐term trends over the study period (water years 1952–99), the dependence of monthly temperature, precipitation, snow water equivalent (SWE) at snowcourse stations, and streamflow throughout the URG on ENSO was investigated using composite analyses of the detrended residuals and through dependence of the residuals on the Climate Prediction Center southern oscillation index during the preceding summer and fall. The climate of La Niña years was found to differ significantly from either El Niño or neutral years. Moreover, significant climatological ENSO‐related effects are confined to certain months, predominantly at the beginning and end of the winter season. In particular, March of La Niña years is significantly warmer and drier than during either El Niño or neutral years, and November of El Niño years is significantly colder and wetter. Differences in temperature and precipitation lead to significant differences in SWE and streamflow in the URG between the three ENSO phases. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.