Effects of temperature on consumer-resource interactions.

Abstract

Understanding how temperature variation influences the negative (e.g. self-limitation) and positive (e.g. saturating functional responses) feedback processes that characterize consumer-resource interactions is an important research priority. Previous work on this topic has yielded conflicting outcomes with some studies predicting that warming should increase consumer-resource oscillations and others predicting that warming should decrease consumer-resource oscillations. Here, I develop a consumer-resource model that both synthesizes previous findings in a common framework and yields novel insights about temperature effects on consumer-resource dynamics. I report three key findings. First, when the resource species' birth rate exhibits a unimodal temperature response, as demonstrated by a large number of empirical studies, the temperature range over which the consumer-resource interaction can persist is determined by the lower and upper temperature limits to the resource species' reproduction. This contrasts with the predictions of previous studies, which assume that the birth rate exhibits a monotonic temperature response, that consumer extinction is determined by temperature effects on consumer species' traits, rather than the resource species' traits. Secondly, the comparative analysis I have conducted shows that whether warming leads to an increase or decrease in consumer-resource oscillations depends on the manner in which temperature affects intraspecific competition. When the strength of self-limitation increases monotonically with temperature, warming causes a decrease in consumer-resource oscillations. However, if self-limitation is strongest at temperatures physiologically optimal for reproduction, a scenario previously unanalysed by theory but amply substantiated by empirical data, warming can cause an increase in consumer-resource oscillations. Thirdly, the model yields testable comparative predictions about consumer-resource dynamics under alternative hypotheses for how temperature affects competitive and resource acquisition traits. Importantly, it does so through empirically quantifiable metrics for predicting temperature effects on consumer viability and consumer-resource oscillations, which obviates the need for parameterizing complex dynamical models. Tests of these metrics with empirical data on a host-parasitoid interaction yield realistic estimates of temperature limits for consumer persistence and the propensity for consumer-resource oscillations, highlighting their utility in predicting temperature effects, particularly warming, on consumer-resource interactions in both natural and agricultural settings.