Abstract
In this study, the crop environment resource synthesis maize (CERES-Maize) model was used to explore the effects of declining sunshine hours (SSH), decreasing daily maximum temperature (Tmax), and cultivar replacements on growth processes and yields of maize in Northern China, a principal region of maize production. SSH were found to decrease at 189 of 246 meteorological stations in the northern provinces of China over the period of 1994–2012, and a decrease in Tmax was also seen at many of these stations. The most significant decrease in these two climate variables occurred during June to September, a period for summer maize growth. For this study, seven crop field stations in the ShaanXi province, in the Guanzhong Plain, were selected, all of which showed a downward trend in SSH and Tmax over the period of 1994–2012. The CERES-Maize model was first calibrated and validated against yield observations for these stations over the same period, and the yield simulations matched very well with observations. The model was then driven by the detrended SSH and Tmax data, and the simulations were compared with those with a trend in these two input variables. The decline in SSH was found to reduce the maize yield by 8% on average over these stations due mostly to limited root growth, and the decline for shorter SSH reduced the yield more than that for longer SSH. Meanwhile, the decrease in higher Tmax increased the yield by extending the growth period, while the decrease in lower Tmax reduced the yield by lowering the thermal time. In addition, the observed yield showed a significant upward trend, and our modeling results indicate that this increase can be attributed mainly to the frequent cultivar replacements over our study period. The replaced cultivars usually had a longer growth period than the prior ones, which compensated for the yield loss due to fewer SSH. Net maize production decreased with the combined effects of the declines in SSH and Tmax on yields. This study quantifies the contribution of changes in climate and cultivars to maize growth processes and yields and provides strong insights into maize production under a complex dynamic climate system.
Highlights
Agricultural production is significantly affected by climate change [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8]
This study provides an improved understanding of maize growth processes under a complex dynamic climate system and provides clues for better prediction of maize yield under different climate change conditions
We explored the effects of sunshine hours (SSH) decline on maize and its yield using the CERES-Maize model [62]
Summary
Agricultural production is significantly affected by climate change [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8]. Global average temperatures have risen by 0.13 ◦ C/decade since 1950. This temperature increase could shorten crop growth periods, leading to a profound impact on crop yields [9,10]. Agronomy 2020, 10, 1862 which generates uncertainties in predicting crop growth periods. Increased temperatures enhance surface evaporation, often resulting in greater cloud cover and weaker incoming solar radiation [15,16]. The latter is related to increased pollutant loads in the atmosphere [17,18,19]
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