Abstract
PurposeThis study seeks to determine the effects of stay-at-home orders in Spring 2020 on COVID-19 cases and deaths in the Central USA by comparing counties and health service areas that were and that were not subject to statewide orders.Design/methodology/approachThis study estimates the effects of statewide stay-at-home orders on new COVID-19 cases and deaths within 19 central states, of which 14 had stay-at-home orders. It uses synthetic control analysis and nearest neighbor matching to estimate the effects at two geographic levels: counties and health service areas.FindingsStatewide stay-at-home orders significantly reduced the number of new COVID-19 cases in the Central USA starting about three weeks after their effective dates; during the fourth week after their effective dates, the orders reduced the number of new cases per capita by 31%–57%. Statewide stay-at-home orders did not reduce the number of new COVID-19 deaths in the Central USA.Social implicationsThe main purpose of stay-at-home orders in Spring 2020 was to “flatten the curve” so that hospitalizations would not exceed capacity. It is likely that stay-at-home orders in the Central USA reduced hospitalizations to some extent, although the effect on hospitalizations was likely smaller than the effect on cases.Originality/valueThis is the first study of stay-at-home orders in the USA to limit the population to a group of interior states. All coastal states had statewide stay-at-home orders and comparing coastal states with orders to interior states without them may be problematic.
Highlights
All 50 states in the USA imposed various restrictions during the first few months of the coronavirus pandemic
The synthetic control estimates of the effects of stay-at-home orders after about four weeks likely are contaminated by the effects of some central states relaxing those orders or other restrictions
This study focuses on the effects during the fourth week after the effective date of the stay-at-home orders
Summary
All 50 states in the USA imposed various restrictions during the first few months of the coronavirus pandemic. There was variation in timing, almost all states imposed the same main restrictions. Forty-nine states (all except South Dakota) closed restaurant dining rooms. Forty-five states (all except Arkansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, Utah and Wyoming) required nonessential businesses to close [1]. 42 states imposed stay-at-home orders, while only eight did not. Within the Central USA – the 20 states located in the four Census divisions that include the word “Central” – there was greater variation in stay-at-home orders, as 14 states imposed them during the first few months of the pandemic, while six states did not
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