Effects of spring Arctic sea ice on summer drought in the middle and high latitudes of Asia

Abstract

Based on data observed from 1979 to 2017, the influence of Arctic sea ice in the previous spring on the first mode of interannual variation in summer drought in the middle and high latitudes of Asia (MHA) is analyzed in this paper, and the possible associated physical mechanism is discussed. The results show that when there is more sea ice near the Svalbard Islands in spring while the sea ice in the Barents–Kara Sea decreases, the drought distribution in the MHA shows a north–south dipole pattern in late summer, and drought weakens in the northern MHA region and strengthens in the southern MHA region. By analyzing the main physical process affecting these changes, the change in sea ice in spring is found to lead to the Polar–Eurasian teleconnection pattern, resulting in more precipitation, thicker snow depths, higher temperatures, and higher soil moisture in the northern MHA region in spring and less precipitation, smaller snow depths, and lower soil moisture in the southern MHA region. Such soil conditions last until summer, affect summer precipitation and temperature conditions through soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks, and ultimately modulate changes in summer drought in the MHA.摘要本文分析了亚洲中高纬度地区 (MHA) 年际尺度夏季干旱的主模态时空变化特征, 以及影响第一模态的主要影响因子和可能的物理过程. 结果显示该区域夏季干旱第一模态主要呈现一个南北偶极性的分布. 而影响MHA夏季干旱的主要影响因子为前春北极海冰. 当春季斯瓦尔巴群岛附近海冰偏多, 而巴伦支海-喀拉海海冰减少时, 通过冰-气相互作用, 使得MHA北部春季降水增加, 雪深加厚, 土壤湿度偏高, 而南部则相反. 然后这样的土壤湿度条件从春季持续到夏季, 通过土壤湿度-大气反馈影响夏季MHA降水和温度变化, 最终对夏季干旱主模态产生影响.