Effects of Some Macro-Economic Variables on Agricultural Output: Implication for Food security in Nigeria (1980-2020)

Abstract

The study explored the effects of some macroeconomic variables on agricultural sub-sector output: implication for food security in Nigeria (1981-2020). The study specifically looked at the effects of money supply, interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate and government recurrent expenditure on agricultural output in Nigeria. Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin, index mundi and journals were used as sources for the annual time series data on the research variables for the period 1981–2019. The Autoregressive Distributed Lagged Model was used in the study. The unit root test revealed in the pre-diagnostic tests that the variables were stationary at 1(0) and 1(1). The ARDL Bound test for co-integration revealed that the variables had long-run co-integrating relationship. Additionally, empirical findings indicated that, in the short run, exchange rate, government recurrent expenditure and money supply as macroeconomic variables affected agricultural output The study recommends that since the research showed that money supply had positive effect on agricultural output, government should inprove on money supply so as to enable farmers meet up their required purchases.