Effects of Socio-Demographic and Economic Factors on Effective Implementation of the Africa Agenda in Nigeria

Abstract

The African union agenda 2063 (AU Agenda 2063) intents to accelerate Africa’s economic transformation and promote sustainable development. The exponential growth model and monomolecular growth model were used to model and project various socio-demographic and economic indicators for Nigeria, including population, unemployment rate, access to electricity, military spending, GDP, and trade balance. Data from year 1991 to 2019 were used to fit the models, and predictions were made for the period from 2020 to 2063. The exponential growth rate model assumes that a population or other variables will continue to grow at an accelerating rate over time. The monomolecular growth rate model, on the other hand, assumes that growth will slow down and eventually level off as the population or variable reaches a saturation or optimum point. The study also highlights the strengths and weaknesses of the exponential growth rate and the monomolecular growth rates models in forecasting the indicators. Additionally, the exponential growth rate and monomolecular growth rate models were used to forecast the indicators. The results show that Nigeria’s population is projected to triple from 206 million in 2020 to 631 million in 2063, while the unemployment rate is projected to quadruple from 6.8% to 27.5%. The access to electricity is projected to increase from 35% to 123% in 2063, while the GDP is projected to increase from $603 billion in 2020 to $15 trillion in 2063. The military spending is projected to increase from 2.6 billion USD to 33.94 billion USD, and the trade balance is projected to increase from 15 billion USD in 2020 to 29.99 billion USD in 2063. The results show that the projected indicators align with the 2063 Africa Agenda and recommends policies that would foster sustainable economic growth and development in Nigeria. By understanding the trends and patterns of these socio-economic indicators, policymakers can make informed decisions about how to allocate resources and promote sustainable development in Nigeria and beyond.