Abstract
Abstract. A warmer climate may lead to less precipitation falling as snow in cold seasons. Such a switch in the state of precipitation not only alters temporal distribution of intra-annual runoff but also tends to yield less total annual runoff. Long-term water balance for 282 catchments across China is investigated, showing that a decreasing snow ratio reduces annual runoff for a given total precipitation. Within the Budyko framework, we develop an equation to quantify the relationship between snow ratio and annual runoff from a water–energy balance viewpoint. Based on the proposed equation, attribution of runoff change during the past several decades and possible runoff change induced by projected snow ratio change using climate experiment outputs archived in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are analyzed. Results indicate that annual runoff in northwestern mountainous and northern high-latitude areas are sensitive to snow ratio change. The proposed model is applicable to other catchments easily and quantitatively for analyzing the effects of possible change in snow ratio on available water resources and evaluating the vulnerability of catchments to climate change.
Highlights
More than one-sixth of the world’s population lives in catchments with snowmelt-dominated runoff (Barnett et al, 2005), and change in snowfall may exert a great influence over available water resources in these regions
Inspired by Berghuijs et al (2014), we aim to understand and quantify the relationship between the snow ratio of precipitation falling as snow to total precipitation and mean annual runoff, as well as assess the hydrologic response to snow ratio variation induced by climate change in this study
We showed that the snow ratio could have a pronounced effect on mean annual runoff based on both historical records and theoretical analysis
Summary
More than one-sixth of the world’s population lives in catchments with snowmelt-dominated runoff (Barnett et al, 2005), and change in snowfall may exert a great influence over available water resources in these regions. The change in the state of precipitation (rainfall or snow) induced by global warming would alter the temporal distribution of intra-annual runoff, thereby increasing the possibility of spring flood disasters (Allamano et al, 2009) and summer water supply crises in relevant regions. Berghuijs et al (2014) conducted a preliminary analysis using the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) data set and found that a higher snowfall fraction is statistically associated with increased annual runoff at pristine catchments. They pointed out that mechanistic understanding of this phenomenon is still lacking. Inspired by Berghuijs et al (2014), we aim to understand and quantify the relationship between the snow ratio of precipitation falling as snow to total precipitation and mean annual runoff, as well as assess the hydrologic response to snow ratio variation induced by climate change in this study
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