Effects of shipping cycles on traffic delays and accident costs at port collector-distributor roads

Abstract

Considering the differences in traffic delays and accident costs at different stages of the shipping cycle, this study develops a system dynamics model to determine the impacts of the shipping cycle on traffic delays and accident costs at port collector-distributor roads. Taking the collector-distributor roads of Yangshan Deepwater Port in Shanghai as a case study, parameter estimation and a model validity test are conducted. The changes in traffic delays and accident costs before and during maintenance activities at different stages of the shipping cycle are analyzed by increasing the growth rates of gross domestic product (GDP), and secondary and tertiary industries in GDP. The model results show that, as the economic growth rate increases, the growth magnitudes of traffic delays and accident costs during a peak period are significantly larger than those during a trough period. The results of this study provide policies and suggestions for improving traffic efficiency and safety on port collector-distributor roads. It is suggested to increase the maintenance frequency and maintenance funds during a peak period. Additionally, it is necessary to develop an intelligent road maintenance system for port collector-distributor roads that takes the shipping cycle into account in order to enhance the road safety level.