Effects of sea-level rise on blue carbon stocks of mangrove ecosystems: insights from Pohnpei Island, Federated States of Micronesia

Abstract

Carbon storage processes in mangrove ecosystems are summarized and future research directions are discussed based on findings from our long-term monitoring studies on Pohnpei Island in the Federated States of Micronesia. On Pohnpei, where coral reef-type mangrove forests dominate, Rhizophora communities maintain their habitat by accumulating mangrove peat at over 5 mm year-1 in response to rapid sea-level rise, but surface erosion is progressing in communities where the tree density of Rhizophora spp. has declined through succession. However, high-resolution aerial photographs taken by drones have identified trees with reduced vigor even in Rhizophora forests, and if sea-level rise occurs at a rate close to the IPCC's maximum prediction, then Rhizophora forests, which are valuable carbon storage sites due to mangrove peat accumulation, are likely to disappear. The impact of relative sea-level rise is determined by the sum of the rate of ground-level change by the external sediment budget and the rate of ground-level rise with mangrove peat accumulation. In the future, each region will need to conduct its own quantitative evaluation.