Effects of sea level rise induced land use changes on traffic congestion

Abstract

This research investigates how land use changes due to sea level rise (SLR) may affect traffic networkcongestion and how preventive protection measures against SLR can significantly improve transportation network performance and possibly be cost effective. We use the San Francisco Bay Area shoreline, under a one-meter SLR, as a case study, and evaluate the results with different metrics: the number of commuters that are not able to execute their trip, and the Vehicle Hours Traveled increase. Our model considers bothhydrodynamic and trafficeffects. The results show that the relocation of commercial and residential buildings from inundated to dry areas will increase congestion levels, while preventive protection of the shoreline leads to lower levels of traffic congestion. Finally, we discuss other possible costs related to the absence of levee protection that should be evaluated by policy makers before developing SLR adaptation strategies.