Effects of sea level rise and typhoon intensity on storm surge and waves in Pearl River Estuary

Abstract

Climate changes, including sea level rise (SLR) and typhoon intensification (TI), have had widespread impacts on natural systems. Through the use of coupled ADCIRC+SWAN models, this study investigates the effects of potential SLR as well as TI on storm surges and waves in Pearl River Estuary, China. Meanwhile, examination of how SLR and TI impact seawalls has been conducted. Results demonstrated that TI has a greater impact on storm surge, whereas SLR has a greater impact on wave heights in the estuary. There is no substantial difference of peak surge height (referring to the mean sea level of the corresponding SLR scenarios) in response to the increase of sea level in the study area. However, by combining the sea level rises of 0.5–1.0m, the surface elevations of peak storm surge increased under SLR conditions. Besides, enhanced typhoon intensity was found to cause the increase of peak surge height as well as wave height in some shallow areas. Furthermore, the combination of those two factors also increased peak surge height and greatly increased wave height. By running the coupled ADCIRC and SWAN models, the simulated results can be employed in flood mitigation and design of seawalls in Pearl River Estuary.