Effects of road tolls for intercity buses on travel activities and the choice of means of transport in German long-distance passenger transport

Abstract

In our study, we used a system dynamics model to analyze how distance-related road tolls for intercity bus services (Fernlinienbusverkehr) would affect the choice of means of transport and the travel activities of long-distance passenger transport users in Germany. In particular, we have analyzed how the modal split will change with certain toll rates, whether rail transport can benefit from the increased burden on its intermodal competitor, or whether the car is the biggest beneficiary instead. In addition, we also examined other relevant aspects, such as the revenue development in the national intercity bus market. Our simulations show that the introduction of distance-related road tolls in intercity bus transport (if they are completely shifted to customers in the form of surcharges) will result in significant changes: Thus, at a toll rate of 0.6 ct/passenger kilometer the modal share of intercity buses (by passenger kilometers) in the German long-distance passenger transport sector will drop by about 12 percent to 2.44 percent in the year 2025. At 0.4 ct/passenger kilometer, the share drops by almost three percent. The railway sector is the main beneficiary, but the car can also gain shares.