Abstract
BackgroundClimate and environmental factors could be one of the primary factors that drive malaria transmission and it remains to challenge the malaria elimination efforts. Hence, this study was aimed to evaluate the effects of meteorological factors and topography on the incidence of malaria in the Boricha district in Sidama regional state of Ethiopia.MethodsMalaria morbidity data recorded from 2010 to 2017 were obtained from all public health facilities of Boricha District in the Sidama regional state of Ethiopia. The monthly malaria cases, rainfall, and temperature (minimum, maximum, and average) were used to fit the ARIMA model to compute the malaria transmission dynamics and also to forecast future incidence. The effects of the meteorological variables and altitude were assessed with a negative binomial regression model using R version 4.0.0. Cross-correlation analysis was employed to compute the delayed effects of meteorological variables on malaria incidence.ResultsTemperature, rainfall, and elevation were the major determinants of malaria incidence in the study area. A regression model of previous monthly rainfall at lag 0 and Lag 2, monthly mean maximum temperature at lag 2 and Lag 3, and monthly mean minimum temperature at lag 3 were found as the best prediction model for monthly malaria incidence. Malaria cases at 1801–1900 m above sea level were 1.48 times more likely to occur than elevation ≥ 2000 m.ConclusionsMeteorological factors and altitude were the major drivers of malaria incidence in the study area. Thus, evidence-based interventions tailored to each determinant are required to achieve the malaria elimination target of the country.
Highlights
Climate and environmental factors could be one of the primary factors that drive malaria transmission and it remains to challenge the malaria elimination efforts
Descriptive statistics of malaria A total of 28,413 confirmed malaria cases were recorded over eight years, from 2010 to 2017 in the study area
There was an identical pattern of trends of monthly malaria occurrence in each year indicating that the relative amplitude of seasonal changes was constant over time (Fig. 1a)
Summary
Climate and environmental factors could be one of the primary factors that drive malaria transmission and it remains to challenge the malaria elimination efforts. The number of malaria cases and deaths had declined by 18% and 48% between 2000 and 2015. The number of countries reporting below 10,000 cases and below 100 indigenous malaria cases increased from 40 to 49 and 17 to 27, respectively, from 2010 to 2018. From 2017 to 2018 alone, the number of countries reporting below 10 indigenous cases increased from 19 to 24. 19 countries had zero indigenous cases for 3 and above successive years from 2000 to 2018, while 4 countries, which were malaria endemic in 2015, attained malaria elimination. The burden of the disease has substantially declined in Africa, including Ethiopia, the continent most affected [1,2,3, 5, 6]
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