Effects of rainfall, moisture stress, and stocking rate on the persistence of white clover over 30 years

Abstract

The effects of spring rainfall, critical levels of summer moisture stress, and sheep stocking rates on the persistence of white clover (Trifolium repens cv. Huia) have been evaluated in a 30-year experiment (1964-93) based on sown, well-fertilised pasture. Plant species presence was measured each year as basal cover using a vertical 10-pin frame. Hits at ground level from 800 points/plot were recorded in late September on duplicate plots, which were set-stocked at 3 rates (10, 20 reduced to 15, 30 reduced to 20 d.s.e./ha). A soil-water model based on rainfall and tank evaporation was calibrated against on-site soil water measurements (0-260 mm) and used to predict soil water (mm) for weekly time steps over 30 years. Smoothing of long-term rainfall data (SYSTAT, Lowess) showed an overall decline in warm-season rainfall (October-March), which was punctuated by above-average (1969-74) and average runs of years (1983-90). Flexible smoothing splines (SAS) were used to indicate patterns of yearly white clover presence. For all stocking treatments, there were significant declines in the presence of white clover over 3 decades. At the highest stocking rate, the recovery of white clover following the 1965 drought was poor. Late summer (January-March) moisture stress, defined as the number of weeks when soil water (0-260 mm) was <15 mm, was critical in determining white clover presence in the following spring (September). Rainfall received from October to December generally had a positive effect. These climate-based relationships reinforce the importance of stolon growth and survival as a regenerative strategy for white clover. However, over the 30 years, the species showed decreasing resilience post drought, which suggests a long-term failure of seed-based regeneration. Annual rates of soil nitrogen build-up ranged from 29 to 54 kg N/ha.year and were poorly related to white clover presence in the stocking treatments. Governing mechanisms, based on interactions between seasonal moisture stress, sheep stocking rate, interspecific plant competition, and seed pool dynamics, are proposed to explain the nature of long-term decline in white clover presence in well-fertilised, sown pastures in the Northern Tablelands of New South Wales.