Effects of projected climate change on the distribution of &amp;lt;i&amp;gt;Mantis religiosa&amp;lt;/i&amp;gt; suggest expansion followed by contraction

Johanna Steger,Stefan Hotes,Roland Brandl,Alexandra Schneider

doi:10.5194/we-20-107-2020

Abstract

Abstract. Climate change influences the global and regional distribution of many species. For thermophilic insects, range expansions towards the north and to higher elevations are expected in the course of climatic warming across the Northern Hemisphere. The distribution of the European mantis (Mantis religiosa) has recently expanded from Mediterranean regions in France to Hesse in central Germany. This is interpreted as a response to rising mean temperatures, and further northward expansion is expected to occur with increasing climate warming. In this study, potential changes in the regional distribution across Hesse were modeled for Mantis religiosa using the present distribution and climate across Europe as the baseline. We estimated potential changes in the regional distribution for two time periods until 2080 based on two climate change scenarios. The results showed that the current range of M. religiosa in Hesse is smaller than expected based on its climatic niche, i.e., the distribution is not in equilibrium with the present climate. With climate warming the model predicts an expansion of the potential distribution for the period 2041–2060. For the period 2061–2080, our model predicts, however, a range contraction in spite of continued warming. This unexpected result warrants further investigation in order to elucidate whether the ongoing climate change may have negative consequences for thermophilic species such as M. religiosa.

Highlights

Increasing greenhouse gas emissions have led to changes in the mean and seasonal variation of the air temperature (Hughes, 2000; Pecl et al, 2017; Hübener and Schönwiese, 2018)
We focused on the federal state of Hesse and addressed two questions: first, is the present distribution of M. religiosa in equilibrium with current climatic conditions, i.e., has the species established populations in all suitable areas? This question follows from an analysis of historical records of the upper elevational border of insects in the Bavarian forest, where predictions based on climate warming fell short of the actual distribution (Bässler et al, 2013)
As climate change in Hesse is expected to create climatic conditions that are similar to those in other parts of the European range of M. religiosa, modeling was based on records from its entire distribution range in Europe, combining all the records from GBIF and from the database for Hesse

Summary

Introduction

Increasing greenhouse gas emissions have led to changes in the mean and seasonal variation of the air temperature (Hughes, 2000; Pecl et al, 2017; Hübener and Schönwiese, 2018). Physiological adaptations allow insects to respond to an increase in temperature by extending their flight periods and by shifting events within their life cycles (Robinet and Roques, 2010). Further ecological responses include higher reproductive rates due to increasing the number of generations within a year (Menéndez, 2007). For some species, changing distribution ranges have been linked to changes in gene expression that confer physiological tolerance, such as cold resistance (Strachan et al, 2011; Telonis-Scott et al, 2012). For thermophilic insects in a warming climate, these responses may act in concert to allow an expansion of their distributional range northwards (Hickling et al, 2006; Menéndez, 2007; Robinet and Roques, 2010)

Methods

Results

Conclusion