Effects of Practicing Social Distancing on COVID-19 Infections and Deaths: A Retrospective Study

Abstract

Background: The study aimed to investigate whether the implementation of social distancing as a mitigation strategy earlier as opposed to in late March would have made an impact on the number of COVID-19 cases and related mortality in the United States. Methods: A Decision tree (Markov Modeling) was performed utilizing the Treeage Software®. The data, which was analyzed via Markov Modeling, was collected from Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center (CRC) and the CDC from February 1st through March 31st. Results: The results showed that earlier use of social distancing would have saved lives, prevented infections, and restricted the exponential spread of infections later in the pandemic. Had social distancing been instituted on March 1st, 307,237 infections would have been prevented, and 9,130 lives would have been saved by March 31st. This study points to the missed opportunity of earlier initiation of the mitigation strategy of social distancing use, with March 1st being a critical breakpoint. Conclusion: Analysis of the data concludes social distancing use must be strictly adhered to address the spread of infections and deaths due to Coronavirus. The findings of this study would be relevant for future research in formulating public health policy.