Effects of population mobility on the COVID-19 spread in Brazil.

Eduarda T C Chagas,Ana Paula Couto Da Silva,Isadora Cardoso-Pereira,Pedro H Barros,Pablo Ximenes,Flávio Figueiredo,Igor V Ponte,Antonio A F Loureiro,Fabricio Murai,Jussara M Almeida,Heitor S Ramos,Sergio Gómez

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0260610

Abstract

This article proposes a study of the SARS-CoV-2 virus spread and the efficacy of public policies in Brazil. Using both aggregated (from large Internet companies) and fine-grained (from Departments of Motor Vehicles) mobility data sources, our work sheds light on the effect of mobility on the pandemic situation in the Brazilian territory. Our main contribution is to show how mobility data, particularly fine-grained ones, can offer valuable insights into virus propagation. For this, we propose a modification in the SENUR model to add mobility information, evaluating different data availability scenarios (different information granularities), and finally, we carry out simulations to evaluate possible public policies. In particular, we conduct a case study that shows, through simulations of hypothetical scenarios, that the contagion curve in several Brazilian cities could have been milder if the government had imposed mobility restrictions soon after reporting the first case. Our results also show that if the government had not taken any action and the only safety measure taken was the population's voluntary isolation (out of fear), the time until the contagion peak for the first wave would have been postponed, but its value would more than double.

Highlights

In December 2019, a new virus from the coronavirus family, SARS-CoV-2, was reported in China
It contains the overall distance traveled by vehicles in a city relative to a baseline calculated in a period before the pandemic
We observe that São Paulo has the highest q1 mean, probably because it was the first case reported in Brazil

Summary

Introduction

In December 2019, a new virus from the coronavirus family, SARS-CoV-2, was reported in China. The virus, which is responsible for the COVID-19 disease, quickly spread across boundaries, affecting the whole world, and has become one of the most significant health challenges of the 21st century. A little more than a year later, in April 2021, 132 million cases and 2,8 million deaths have been officially reported worldwide [1]. While most of the world’s population are still in the vaccination process, global health experts expect more cases and deaths in subsequent months. Brazil accounts for a large share of cases worldwide (it is about 20% on August 6th, 2021) according to data from state governments [2].

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