Effects of nondiscretionary trading on futures prices

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of the nondiscretionary trading demands of VIX exchangetraded products (ETPs) issuers on the prices and volumes in the VIX futures. We find that the ETPs’ information-less, mechanical rebalancing of futures positions to maintain the constant maturity of the index and the promised leverage ratios of the VIX ETPs have significantly positive predictive power for end-of-day futures returns. We also show that the impact on price has diminished through time as a result of the increased liquidity provided by hedge funds, and the “natural” hedging of the issuers’ inverse products.