Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the death rates from COVID-19 in Canada

Abstract

This paper examines the effectiveness of provincially enacted policies to deter the COVID-19 mortality rate during the pre-vaccine rollout pandemic in Canada. The data has been collected from Statistics Canada and other various online resources including the Blavatnik School of Government and provincial statements. Relevant information was collected for individual provinces from 11 March 2020 to 31 Jan 2021. A two-stage least squares methodology was applied by examining, by province, the cumulative number of deaths reported as due to COVID-19 before and after policy implementation. We examine the effect of each of several policies based on a 20 plus day lagged period after being put into place. Our main finding is that workplace closures and strict gathering restrictions are associated with a decrease in mortality rates of COVID-19 in Canada. We also find that the strength of the policies overall is associated with a decrease in mortality rates of COVID-19 in Canada. Using data from the Google Mobility Report we confirm that the announcements of the policies had significant behavioural effects on individuals’ movements. We interpret that social distance policies, specifically the workplace closure and strict gathering policies, have been effective factors decreasing mortality from the Coronavirus epidemic in Canada.