Effects of multilateral and preferential trade policy reform in Africa: The case of Uganda

Abstract

This paper estimates the effects on production, trade and economic welfare of current trade policy regimes throughout the world on Uganda relative to other economies. This will be a benchmark against which to examine various multilateral and preferential trade policy scenarios that might emerge over the next decade as part of the WTO's Doha Round and from the expected move later this decade towards Economic Partnership Agreements with the European Union. The results suggest modest gains or worse for Uganda, in part because it already has low tariffs and ready preferential access to rich-country markets. Several important caveats to this type of analysis are stressed though, before drawing out some trade and policy implications for Uganda.