Abstract
Arboviruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus have been introduced to Florida on many occasions. Infrequently, these introductions lead to sporadic local transmission and, more rarely, sustained local transmission. Both mosquito species are present in Florida, with spatio-temporal variation in population composition. We developed a two-vector compartmental, deterministic model to investigate factors influencing Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) establishment. The model includes a nonlinear, temperature-dependent mosquito mortality function based on minimum mortality in a central temperature region. Latin Hypercube sampling was used to generate parameter sets used to simulate transmission dynamics, following the introduction of one infected human. The analysis was repeated for three values of the mortality function central temperature. Mean annual temperature was consistently important in the likelihood of epidemics, and epidemics increased as the central temperature increased. Ae. albopictus recruitment was influential at the lowest central temperature while Ae. aegypti recruitment was influential at higher central temperatures. Our results indicate that the likelihood of CHIKV establishment may vary, but overall Florida is permissive for introductions. Model outcomes were sensitive to the specifics of mosquito mortality. Mosquito biology parameters are variable, and improved understanding of this variation will improve our ability to predict the outcome of introductions.
Highlights
Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is an Alphavirus in the family Togiviridae, native to Africa, which causes human disease and is transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, primarily invasive Stegomyia
Mean annual temperature was consistently important in the likelihood of epidemics, and epidemics increased as the central temperature increased
Our results indicate that the likelihood of CHIKV establishment may vary, but overall Florida is permissive for introductions
Summary
Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is an Alphavirus in the family Togiviridae, native to Africa, which causes human disease and is transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, primarily invasive Stegomyia. Zoonotic cycles between sylvatic Aedes species and non-human primates occur in Africa [1], with spillover to the human population, but elsewhere the transmission cycle is primarily between Ae. aegypti or Ae. albopictus (in its invasive range) and humans. Three major lineages are recognized (East, Central, and South African (ECSA), Asian, and West African (WA)), with an additional sublineage of ECSA (Indian Ocean lineage, IOL). The genotypes of these lineages have diverged, and virulence in humans varies among lineages [3]. In 2014, there were high levels of CHIKV transmission in the Americas and the Caribbean, leading to concern about introduction of the virus to new areas.
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