Effects of Meteorological Factors on COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality in Moscow in April–June 2020

Abstract

We studied the impact of meteorological factors including atmospheric pressure, relative and absolute humidity, air temperature, wind speed, and precipitation quantity on COVID-19 incidence and mortality rates in Moscow during the first wave of the pandemic from 1st April to 25th June 2020 using a correlation analysis. The calculations created new scientific knowledge about the effects of fluctuations in average daily values of weather parameters on the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic and demonstrated their statistical significance. We established that meteorological factors had a greater influence on the incidence than on mortality from the novel coronavirus disease. Atmospheric pressure and wind speed had the strongest effect on incidence and mortality rates of Muscovites while air temperature and precipitation quantity demonstrated the least impact. Correlation coefficients of 0.50–0.70 enabled us to assert that the meteorological factors start influencing the incidence and mortality 6 to 8 weeks before the disease onset. Based on empirical data, we also estimated that the most likely period between the disease onset and death of COVID-19 patients ranged from 8.63 to 22.13 days, the average being 12.63 days. The resulting statistical patterns demonstrate high convergence with actual data and international experience and allow determination of the degree of influence of meteorological conditions on the development of the COVID-19 pandemic in different periods and prognosis of the worst scenarios in the city enabling appropriate and timely preventive measures.