Abstract
BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic is complex and is developing in different ways according to the country involved.MethodsTo identify the key parameters or processes that have the greatest effects on the pandemic and reveal the different progressions of epidemics in different countries, we quantified enhanced control measures and the dynamics of the production and provision of medical resources. We then nested these within a COVID-19 epidemic transmission model, which is parameterized by multi-source data. We obtained rate functions related to the intensity of mitigation measures, the effective reproduction numbers and the timings and durations of runs on medical resources, given differing control measures implemented in various countries.ResultsIncreased detection rates may induce runs on medical resources and prolong their durations, depending on resource availability. Nevertheless, improving the detection rate can effectively and rapidly reduce the mortality rate, even after runs on medical resources. Combinations of multiple prevention and control strategies and timely improvement of abilities to supplement medical resources are key to effective control of the COVID-19 epidemic. A 50% reduction in comprehensive control measures would have led to the cumulative numbers of confirmed cases and deaths exceeding 590,000 and 60,000, respectively, by 27 March 2020 in mainland China.ConclusionsMultiple data sources and cross validation of a COVID-19 epidemic model, coupled with a medical resource logistic model, revealed the key factors that affect epidemic progressions and their outbreak patterns in different countries. These key factors are the type of emergency medical response to avoid runs on medical resources, especially improved detection rates, the ability to promote public health measures, and the synergistic effects of combinations of multiple prevention and control strategies. The proposed model can assist health authorities to predict when they will be most in need of hospital beds and equipment such as ventilators, personal protection equipment, drugs, and staff.
Highlights
The COVID-19 pandemic is complex and is developing in different ways according to the country involved
Multiple data sources and cross validation of a COVID-19 epidemic model, coupled with a medical resource logistic model, revealed the key factors that affect epidemic progressions and their outbreak patterns in different countries. These key factors are the type of emergency medical response to avoid runs on medical resources, especially improved detection rates, the ability to promote public health measures, and the synergistic effects of combinations of multiple prevention and control strategies
Using information such as the number of beds per thousand people in each country and differences in increasing volumes of medical resources that can be provided by each country during public health emergencies [9,10,11,12,13,14], we modelled the number of beds provided by each country during the development of a COVID-19 epidemic with the logistic growth function using country-specific varying growth rates and carrying capacities (section SI1 of Supplementary information (SI))
Summary
The COVID-19 pandemic is complex and is developing in different ways according to the country involved. In the absence of effective treatments for, or vaccines against, COVID-19, the early adoption of strict prevention and control measures will undoubtedly play a very important role in limiting the spread of the virus and the growth of the epidemic [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8] This has been shown by the successes of China, South Korea and other countries in curbing the spread of the virus and achieving important prevention and control results [7, 8]. The formulated transmission model is parameterized by multi-source data such as the numbers of newly reported cases and the cumulative numbers of deaths for each country
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