Effects of low salinity water inflow on eelgrass and cultured bivalves in subarctic lagoons: Analysis using hydrodynamic model

Abstract

Brackish water areas are affected by river inflows and changes in tidal level, resulting in large fluctuations in salinity. Prolonged exposure to low salinity water can have adverse effects on the growth of marine plants and animals. Characteristics of lagoons such as catchment area, bottom topography, and seawater exchange rate with the open ocean vary widely and the horizontal and vertical gradients of salinity and spatio-temporal variability are also diverse. In this study, we evaluated the impact of low salinity water inflows due to heavy rainfall on seagrass and cultured bivalves in two lagoons (Akkeshi-ko Lagoon and Notoro-ko Lagoon), which are located in the subarctic region of Japan and have contrasting geomorphological characteristics. Continuous observations of the physical environment were conducted by installing measurement equipment near the seafloor, and we ran ten year replicate calculations using a three-dimensional high-resolution hydrodynamic model. Simulation results were used to assess the risk of low salinity associated with heavy rainfall to eelgrass and bivalves (oyster, scallop, and clam). The model analysis showed that the magnitude and frequency of exposure to low salinity water varied greatly between and within lagoons. Akkeshi-ko Lagoon, which has a relatively large catchment area and shallow basin, was sometimes exposed to extremely low salinities, which could lead to the mortality of oysters during heavy rains once every few years. In contrast, salinity decline in Notoro-ko Lagoon is negligible even in years with heavy rainfall due to the high volume of water within the lagoon and small catchment area. With projections that the intensity of heavy rainfall will increase due to climate change, this study was able to evaluate the impact of changes in river flow on coastal ecosystems and aquaculture, and we discussed adaptation measures that may be necessary in the future.